Why Do We Think We’re Right, Even When We’re Wrong? The Science Behind Our Misjudgments

October 24th, 2024

By Lily Anderson

Staff Writer for Wake Up World

Ever felt completely confident in a disagreement, only to later realize you didn’t have all the facts? A new study explains why we often feel sure about decisions, even when our information is incomplete. This phenomenon is called the “illusion of information adequacy,” and it may explain why we think we’re right, even when we’re wrong.

The Illusion of Information Adequacy: What It Means

In this study, researchers from Ohio State University and Johns Hopkins University discovered that people feel confident in their decisions, even when they lack full information.

“We found that people don’t usually stop to consider if more information might help them make a better choice,” said Angus Fletcher, co-author of the study.

When given just a few facts, we often assume that we know enough, leading to overconfidence in our judgments.

The Study in Action

The study included more than 1,200 participants. Each participant read an article about a fictional school facing a water shortage. The researchers divided them into three groups. One group read only arguments for merging the school with another. Another group read only reasons to stay separate. A third group read both perspectives.

Surprisingly, participants who read just one side of the story were more confident in their decisions than those who read both sides. According to Fletcher, “Those with only half the information were actually more confident… even though they didn’t have all the information.”

Key Findings: Confidence Without Full Information

The study shows that people often think they have enough facts, even when they don’t. Even more surprising, participants with only partial information believed others would make the same decision they did.

“They were sure their decision was the right one, even without all the facts,” said Fletcher. This bias links to naïve realism, where people believe their view of the world is the only truth. When combined with the illusion of information adequacy, it becomes easy to see how misunderstandings occur.

Can We Change Our Minds?

Even though people were initially confident, the study offered a hopeful outcome. Some participants who only saw one side of the argument later read the opposing view. Many were open to changing their decisions after seeing the complete picture.

Fletcher explained, “Most interpersonal conflicts aren’t ideological; they stem from misunderstandings. When people get all the facts, they often reconsider their stance.”

This capacity for change suggests that our beliefs are not as fixed as we might think. Many people have the potential to adapt their views when presented with new information. This is particularly significant in situations where misunderstandings can escalate into conflicts. Recognizing that our perspective is just one piece of the puzzle opens the door to healthier conversations and interactions.

Additionally, the study highlights the importance of humility in decision-making. Admitting that we may not have all the facts is not a weakness; it shows strength and a willingness to grow. When we remain open to the possibility of being wrong, we can navigate disagreements with a more compassionate and understanding approach, fostering deeper connections with others.

Practical Steps to Avoid Overconfidence

The illusion of information adequacy often pushes us to make decisions based on incomplete knowledge, leading to overconfidence and misjudgment. However, we can avoid falling into this trap by applying conscious effort. Here are some effective strategies to help cultivate a mindset that welcomes broader perspectives and a deeper understanding of any situation:

1. Ask More Questions

One of the simplest yet most effective strategies is to cultivate curiosity. Before forming a solid opinion, pause and ask yourself, “Do I really have all the facts?” This self-check encourages you to slow down and recognize that more information might be available. Asking follow-up questions like, “What don’t I know?” or “Is there another side to this story?” can open the door to new insights. Curiosity expands your understanding and helps you remain humble in your approach, knowing that what you know is only part of the whole picture.

2. Look for Both Sides

It’s easy to find and focus on information that aligns with what we already believe. However, this can limit your perspective. To avoid this bias, make it a point to look for alternative viewpoints. Instead of relying solely on one source, seek out opposing opinions or conflicting evidence. This habit trains your mind to approach situations from multiple angles, reducing the risk of overconfidence. By actively challenging your initial beliefs, you’ll become more flexible and adaptive in your thinking, making it easier to arrive at well-rounded conclusions.

3. Stay Open to Change

A crucial part of growth is acknowledging that you don’t know everything. This isn’t a sign of weakness; it demonstrates maturity and openness to learning. When new information comes your way, stay receptive to it, even if it contradicts your current understanding. Embrace the mindset that changing your mind is a strength, not a flaw. Being open to change allows you to learn from others and helps you avoid the rigidity that can come from holding onto outdated or incomplete ideas. Flexibility fosters personal and intellectual growth, helping you make wiser, more informed decisions.

4. Engage in Active Listening

Active listening is an often overlooked yet essential skill in avoiding overconfidence. When engaging in a discussion or disagreement, truly listen to the other person’s perspective without immediately jumping to conclusions or forming a rebuttal. This ensures that you are processing the full scope of the conversation and not just filtering the information that supports your existing view. Active listening allows you to understand nuances and details that may go unnoticed, giving you a more comprehensive understanding of the issue.

5. Evaluate the Source of Information

Another important step is to assess where your information is coming from. Not all sources are equal, and some may be biased or incomplete. Before drawing any conclusions, ask yourself, “Is this source credible? Am I relying on just one perspective?” Evaluating the quality and diversity of your sources prevents you from forming opinions based on incomplete or unreliable data. The more varied and reputable your sources, the more informed and balanced your viewpoint will be.

6. Practice Self-Reflection

After forming an opinion or making a decision, reflect on it. Ask yourself questions like, “Why do I believe this?” or “What assumptions have I made?” Regular self-reflection helps you recognize overconfidence patterns and allows you to reassess your conclusions. By regularly questioning your thinking, you’ll develop a greater awareness of your decision-making process and become better at recognizing when you’re working with incomplete information.

By adopting these practices, you can effectively combat the illusion of information adequacy and develop a mindset rooted in curiosity, openness, and balance. This helps improve personal decision-making and fosters healthier communication and understanding with others.

Conclusion: Embrace Curiosity

The illusion of information adequacy makes us feel confident, even when key information is missing. We can make more informed decisions and avoid unnecessary conflict by staying curious and seeking out multiple perspectives.

“As we found in this study, people tend to think they know all the relevant facts, even if they don’t,” Fletcher said. “The key is to stay open to the idea that there’s more you haven’t considered.”

Journal Reference

• The illusion of information adequacy. PLOS ONE, 2024 – 10.1371/journal.pone.0310216

About the Author

Lily Anderson is an enthusiastic writer and curious investigator of the latest scientific developments. Driven by a strong desire to learn, she has a knack for simplifying complex concepts into engaging stories, making science accessible and interesting to a broad audience. Lily’s work is important for connecting specialists with the general public, sparking wonder, and fostering meaningful conversations about new scientific discoveries.